Primera División - Apertura · Mar 21, 2026 00:30
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
Club Nacional
PWR 35
Defensor Sporting
PWR 35
1-2
predicted
Club Nacional
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Defensor Sporting Win
Score
1-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (40%)1-0 (24%)0-1 (13%)1-1 (8%)2-0 (7%)2-1 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
6%
Under 2.5
94%
94%
BTTS
No
No 12%
Over 3.5
2%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Defensor Sport…
LDLLW
STABLE
Club Nacional
WLLWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk31%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 50% at home = very high riskPoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 2/3 draws (67%) = VERY HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (30.6%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.59
Defensor Sport…vs
0.32
Club NacionalGoal Probability
Defensor Sp…
0
55%
1
33%
2
10%
3
2%
4
0%
Club Nacion…
0
73%
1
23%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (39%)0-1 (19%)1-0 (18%)1-1 (9%)0-2 (5%)2-0 (4%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 61% | 39% | - |
| 1.5 | 25% | 75% | UNDER |
| 2.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Defensor Sp…-1
Gap#7
Club Nacion…
WR 50% 8 pts
WR 67% 10 pts
Defensor Sport…
6.0%
| Mar 15 | Defenso… v Deporti… | 1-0 |
| Mar 08 | Defenso… v Central… | 0-0 |
| Mar 03 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 26 | Defenso… v Atletic… | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Defenso… v Cerro L… | 1-0 |
| Feb 14 | Defenso… v Liverpo… | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Defenso… v Wandere… | 1-1 |
| Jan 17 | Defenso… v Unión S… | 1-1 |
| Jan 12 | Defenso… v Progreso | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Defenso… v Club Na… | 1-1 |
Club Nacional
10.0%
| Mar 13 | Club Na… v Wandere… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Club Na… v Juventud | 3-1 |
| Mar 01 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Club Na… v Progreso | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Club Na… v Racing … | 1-1 |
| Feb 08 | Club Na… v Boston … | 1-2 |
| Feb 01 | Club Na… v Peñarol… | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Club Na… v Concepc… | 1-0 |
| Jan 22 | Club Na… v Progreso | 1-1 |
| Jan 17 | Club Na… v Cerro L… | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Nov 09, 2025 | Defensor Spor… | 1-1 | Club Nacional |
| Dec 06, 2024 | Club Nacional | 2-2 | Defensor Spor… |
| Dec 04, 2023 | Club Nacional | 1-0 | Defensor Spor… |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Defensor Sporting struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.