Cup · Mar 17, 2026 10:00
Chernihiv
PWR 45
PWR 45
1-0
predicted
Yarud Mariupol'
PWR 41
PWR 41
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
ELITE: Chernihiv to win (85% confidence)
Score
1-0
Confidence
85%
TierELITE
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (25%)1-0 (22%)0-1 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.47x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.8x
Over 2.5
16%
Under 2.5
84%
84%
BTTS
No
No 23%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
29Attack47
71Defense42
Goals/G
0.81.3
Conc/G
0.81.7
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Chernihiv
LWWLD
STABLE
Yarud Mariupol'
WDLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk26%
Accuracy38%
Full data available (Tier 1)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rate
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.89
Chernihivvs
0.49
Yarud Mariupol'Goal Probability
Chernihiv
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
Yarud Mariu…
0
61%
1
30%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (25%)1-0 (21%)0-1 (14%)1-1 (12%)2-0 (9%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 41% | 60% | - |
| 2.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#9
Chernihiv+16
Gap#25
Yarud Mariu…
WR 33% 8 pts
WR 33% 4 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernihiv | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Yarud Mariupo… | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Chernihiv
10.0%
| Dec 15 | Chernih… v Minai | 0-1 |
| Dec 09 | Chernih… v Probiy … | 3-0 |
| Nov 29 | Chernih… v Prykarp… | 1-0 |
| Nov 23 | Chernih… v Viktori… | 3-0 |
| Nov 12 | Chernih… v Livyi B… | 1-1 |
| Nov 08 | Chernih… v Ahrobiz… | 0-2 |
| Nov 02 | Chernih… v Inhulets | 1-1 |
| Oct 28 | Chernih… v Lisne | 1-1 |
| Oct 19 | Chernih… v Chornom… | 1-0 |
| Oct 13 | Chernih… v UCSA | 2-0 |
Yarud Mariupol'
14.0%
| Jan 28 | Yarud M… v Rukh Vy… | 0-2 |
| Nov 30 | Yarud M… v UCSA | 1-1 |
| Nov 23 | Yarud M… v Prykarp… | 3-0 |
| Nov 16 | Yarud M… v SK Polt… | 2-0 |
| Nov 08 | Yarud M… v Viktori… | 1-2 |
| Nov 04 | Yarud M… v Podilly… | 0-1 |
| Oct 30 | Yarud M… v Tyshkiv… | 1-1 |
| Oct 25 | Yarud M… v Probiy … | 0-0 |
| Oct 19 | Yarud M… v Nyva Te… | 0-2 |
| Oct 14 | Yarud M… v Ahrobiz… | 1-0 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Aug 31, 2025 | Yarud Mariupo… | 1-0 | Chernihiv |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Yarud Mariupo… | 3-1 | Chernihiv |
| Sep 13, 2023 | Chernihiv | 0-1 | Yarud Mariupo… |
| May 07, 2023 | Yarud Mariupo… | 1-1 | Chernihiv |
| Apr 08, 2023 | Chernihiv | 2-1 | Yarud Mariupo… |
Decision Breakdown
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
65%
Standings
50%
Market
47%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Yarud Mariupol' in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.