Serie A · Mar 20, 2026 00:30
Chapecoense
PWR 35
Corinthians
PWR 35
Chapecoense
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Corinthians
PWR 35
41%
26%
33%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (17%)2-0 (17%)3-0 (11%)0-0 (9%)1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS
No
No 33%
Over 3.5
10%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Chapecoense
LWLLL
STABLE
Corinthians
DLLDW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk35%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityHome team draws 50% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateH2H: 1/3 draws (33%) = HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskAway draws 67% away = VERY HIGHCombined DR 117% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.92
Chapecoensevs
0.48
CorinthiansGoal Probability
Chapecoense
0
15%
1
28%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Corinthians
0
62%
1
30%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (17%)1-0 (17%)0-1 (13%)1-1 (13%)2-0 (8%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 83% | 17% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 53% | 47% | - |
| 2.5 | 26% | 74% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#14
Chapecoense-7
Gap#7
Corinthians
WR 50% 5 pts
WR 33% 8 pts
Chapecoense
4.0%
| Mar 12 | Chapeco… v São Pau… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Chapeco… v Barra | 1-0 |
| Mar 01 | Chapeco… v Barra | 3-1 |
| Feb 22 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Chapeco… v Brusque | 1-0 |
| Feb 11 | Chapeco… v Coritiba | 3-3 |
| Feb 08 | Chapeco… v Criciúma | 0-0 |
| Feb 05 | Chapeco… v Vasco D… | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Chapeco… v Criciúma | 1-2 |
| Jan 28 | Chapeco… v Santos | 4-2 |
Corinthians
8.0%
| Mar 15 | Corinth… v Santos | 1-1 |
| Mar 14 | Corinth… v Naciona… | 2-0 |
| Mar 12 | Corinth… v Coritiba | 0-2 |
| Mar 07 | Corinth… v Amazonas | 1-1 |
| Mar 04 | Corinth… v Princes… | 2-0 |
| Mar 01 | Corinth… v Amazonas | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | Corinth… v Novoriz… | 1-0 |
| Feb 25 | Corinth… v Cruzeiro | 1-1 |
| Feb 22 | Corinth… v Portugu… | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Corinth… v JC | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Aug 09, 2025 | Corinthians | 0-0 | Chapecoense |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Chapecoense | 1-2 | Corinthians |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Chapecoense | 2-1 | Corinthians |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
86%
Standings
36%
Market
50%
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Chapecoense struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.