Azerbaijan Premier League · Mar 18, 2026 11:00
Şamaxı
PWR 35
Şamaxı
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Araz
PWR 35
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
2-1 (9%)3-1 (8%)1-1 (7%)2-0 (7%)3-0 (6%)1-0 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
68%
68%
Under 2.5
32%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 66%
Over 3.5
31%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Şamaxı
WDLDD
STABLE
Araz
WLLWW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk34%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 33% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 2/6 draws (33%) = HIGH riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesCombined DR 67% = 50.7% draw rateElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.47
Şamaxıvs
1.27
ArazGoal Probability
Şamaxı
0
9%
1
21%
2
26%
3
21%
4
13%
Araz
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (11%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (10%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (7%)3-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 54% | 47% | - |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 16% | 85% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Şamaxı-3
Gap#5
Araz
WR 25% 30 pts
WR 25% 36 pts
Şamaxı
10.0%
| Mar 13 | Şamaxı v Sumqayıt | 0-1 |
| Mar 08 | Şamaxı v Mil-Muğ… | 0-0 |
| Mar 04 | Şamaxı v Qarabağ… | 3-1 |
| Feb 28 | Şamaxı v Neftchi… | 2-2 |
| Feb 22 | Şamaxı v Mil-Muğ… | 0-0 |
| Feb 16 | Şamaxı v Turan T… | 0-0 |
| Feb 10 | Şamaxı v Qarabağ… | 1-2 |
| Feb 05 | Şamaxı v Qarabağ… | 2-1 |
| Jan 31 | Şamaxı v Kəpəz | 0-2 |
| Jan 24 | Şamaxı v Qabala | 0-4 |
Araz
12.0%
| Mar 13 | Araz v Karvan | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Araz v Qarabağ… | 6-0 |
| Feb 27 | Araz v Zira | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Araz v Karvan | 0-2 |
| Feb 15 | Araz v Sumqayıt | 1-0 |
| Feb 08 | Araz v Sabah FA | 4-1 |
| Feb 01 | Araz v Neftchi… | 0-4 |
| Jan 23 | Araz v Mil-Muğ… | 2-2 |
| Dec 21 | Araz v Şamaxı | 2-0 |
| Dec 14 | Araz v Qarabağ… | 5-1 |
Head-to-Head (6)
| Dec 21, 2025 | Araz | 2-0 | Şamaxı |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Şamaxı | 1-1 | Araz |
| May 17, 2025 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Araz |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Araz | 1-1 | Şamaxı |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Şamaxı | 0-1 | Araz |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Araz | 1-0 | Şamaxı |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
83%
Standings
44%
Market
50%
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Araz in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.