Azerbaijan Premier League · Mar 20, 2026 15:15
Neftchi Baku
PWR 35
Neftchi Baku
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Mil-Muğan
PWR 35
PWR 35
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Neftchi Baku Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (47%)1-0 (23%)0-1 (12%)1-1 (6%)2-0 (6%)0-2 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
4%
Under 2.5
96%
96%
BTTS
No
No 9%
Over 3.5
20%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Neftchi Baku
WLDWW
STABLE
Mil-Muğan
LDDDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 54% at home = very high riskAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskCombined DR 80% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (31.7%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.49
Neftchi Bakuvs
0.26
Mil-MuğanGoal Probability
Neftchi Baku
0
61%
1
30%
2
7%
3
1%
4
0%
Mil-Muğan
0
77%
1
20%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (19%)2-0 (18%)3-0 (11%)0-0 (10%)1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 90% | 10% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% | - |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 9% | 92% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#7
Neftchi Baku+2
Gap#9
Mil-Muğan
WR 18% 31 pts
WR 33% 22 pts
Neftchi Baku
14.0%
| Mar 15 | Neftchi… v Qabala | 1-3 |
| Mar 09 | Neftchi… v Turan T… | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Neftchi… v Şamaxı | 2-2 |
| Feb 15 | Neftchi… v Kəpəz | 1-3 |
| Feb 10 | Neftchi… v Qabala | 1-0 |
| Feb 01 | Neftchi… v Araz | 0-4 |
| Jan 23 | Neftchi… v Zira | 0-0 |
| Dec 20 | Neftchi… v Karvan | 1-2 |
| Dec 15 | Neftchi… v Sumqayıt | 2-2 |
| Dec 08 | Neftchi… v Sabah FA | 2-0 |
Mil-Muğan
6.0%
| Mar 14 | Mil-Muğ… v Sabah FA | 0-5 |
| Mar 08 | Mil-Muğ… v Şamaxı | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Mil-Muğ… v Turan T… | 0-0 |
| Feb 22 | Mil-Muğ… v Şamaxı | 0-0 |
| Feb 14 | Mil-Muğ… v Qarabağ… | 0-1 |
| Feb 09 | Mil-Muğ… v Kəpəz | 0-0 |
| Jan 30 | Mil-Muğ… v Qabala | 3-2 |
| Jan 23 | Mil-Muğ… v Araz | 2-2 |
| Dec 20 | Mil-Muğ… v Zira | 0-0 |
| Dec 15 | Mil-Muğ… v Karvan | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Nov 23, 2025 | Neftchi Baku | 2-3 | Mil-Muğan |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Mil-Muğan | 0-0 | Neftchi Baku |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
48%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Neftchi Baku in strong form (3W in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.