Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 20:30
Tondela
PWR 35
Tondela
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
AVS
PWR 35
PWR 35
47%
25%
28%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Tondela Win
Score
1-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (13%)1-0 (11%)3-0 (10%)2-1 (9%)1-1 (8%)3-1 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
BTTS
No 45%
Over 3.5
22%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Tondela
LDWDD
STABLE
AVS
LDDLW
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk32%
Accuracy38%
AWAY_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateHome team draws 38% at home = very high riskBoth teams low-scoring = 37.8% draw rateAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesCombined DR 64% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (32.1%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.36
Tondelavs
0.68
AVSGoal Probability
Tondela
0
9%
1
22%
2
26%
3
21%
4
12%
AVS
0
51%
1
34%
2
12%
3
3%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
1-0 (15%)2-0 (12%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (9%)0-0 (9%)3-0 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% | - |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 10% | 90% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 4% | 96% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
League Position
#17
Tondela+1
Gap#18
AVS
WR 8% 19 pts
WR 0% 10 pts
Tondela
10.0%
| Mar 09 | Tondela v Rio Ave… | 0-1 |
| Mar 01 | Tondela v Santa C… | 2-2 |
| Feb 20 | Tondela v Estrela… | 0-2 |
| Feb 13 | Tondela v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Tondela v Estoril | 2-2 |
| Feb 01 | Tondela v Benfica | 0-0 |
| Jan 25 | Tondela v Famalic… | 3-0 |
| Jan 18 | Tondela v SC Braga | 0-1 |
| Jan 11 | Tondela v Moreire… | 1-0 |
| Jan 03 | Tondela v Arouca | 3-1 |
AVS
8.0%
| Mar 15 | AVS v Santa C… | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | AVS v Alverca | 0-0 |
| Feb 28 | AVS v Estrela… | 0-0 |
| Feb 21 | AVS v Benfica | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | AVS v Estoril | 3-0 |
| Feb 09 | AVS v Famalic… | 3-1 |
| Feb 05 | AVS v Sportin… | 3-2 |
| Feb 02 | AVS v SC Braga | 0-4 |
| Jan 23 | AVS v Casa Pi… | 3-3 |
| Jan 17 | AVS v Arouca | 0-1 |
Head-to-Head (2)
| Nov 02, 2025 | AVS | 2-2 | Tondela |
| May 19, 2024 | AVS | 0-1 | Tondela |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
89%
Standings
54%
Market
50%
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.