Primeira Liga · Mar 20, 2026 20:15
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
Casa Pia AC
PWR 35
Estrela da Amadora
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Casa Pia AC
PWR 35
37%
27%
36%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Casa Pia AC Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
42%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (22%)2-0 (21%)3-0 (13%)0-0 (12%)1-1 (6%)2-1 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
65%
BTTS
No
No 20%
Over 3.5
29%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Estrela da Ama…
LDDLL
STABLE
Casa Pia AC
DDLWD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeAWAY
Draw Risk33%
Accuracy38%
HOME_LEAKING
Standings data available (Tier 2)Close positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateWR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateHome team draws 38% at home = very high riskSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw ratePoints within 3 = 32.1% draw rateAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesCombined DR 62% = 50.7% draw rateConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (33.0%) - VETO 1X2 | Away prediction needs 76%+ confidence
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89
Estrela da Ama…vs
0.27
Casa Pia ACGoal Probability
Estrela da …
0
15%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Casa Pia AC
0
76%
1
21%
2
3%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (12%)0-1 (10%)1-2 (9%)1-0 (8%)2-1 (8%)0-2 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% | - |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 6% | 94% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
League Position
#13
Estrela da …+2
Gap#15
Casa Pia AC
WR 23% 25 pts
WR 23% 24 pts
Estrela da Ama…
4.0%
| Mar 15 | Estrela… v Rio Ave… | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Estrela… v GIL Vic… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Estrela… v AVS | 0-0 |
| Feb 20 | Estrela… v Tondela | 0-2 |
| Feb 14 | Estrela… v Guimara… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Estrela… v Santa C… | 1-0 |
| Jan 31 | Estrela… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Jan 25 | Estrela… v Benfica | 4-0 |
| Jan 19 | Estrela… v Estoril | 0-5 |
| Jan 03 | Estrela… v SC Braga | 3-3 |
Casa Pia AC
10.0%
| Mar 07 | Casa Pi… v Estoril | 0-0 |
| Mar 01 | Casa Pi… v Moreire… | 1-1 |
| Feb 23 | Casa Pi… v Famalic… | 2-0 |
| Feb 14 | Casa Pi… v Arouca | 3-2 |
| Feb 08 | Casa Pi… v Nacional | 0-0 |
| Feb 02 | Casa Pi… v FC Porto | 2-1 |
| Jan 23 | Casa Pi… v AVS | 3-3 |
| Jan 16 | Casa Pi… v Sportin… | 3-0 |
| Jan 04 | Casa Pi… v Rio Ave… | 3-1 |
| Dec 28 | Casa Pi… v Guimara… | 0-0 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 01, 2025 | Casa Pia AC | 3-5 | Estrela da Am… |
| Feb 09, 2025 | Casa Pia AC | 1-0 | Estrela da Am… |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 0-1 | Casa Pia AC |
| Mar 08, 2024 | Estrela da Am… | 3-1 | Casa Pia AC |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
88%
Standings
53%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Estrela da Amadora struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.