Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 15:30
Moreirense
PWR 35
Arouca
PWR 35
Moreirense
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Arouca
PWR 35
49%
24%
27%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Moreirense Win
Score
2-1
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
1-1 (13%)1-0 (12%)0-1 (11%)0-0 (9%)2-1 (8%)1-2 (7%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
BTTS
No 48%
Over 3.5
32%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Moreirense
LDDLW
STABLE
Arouca
LLLWL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team drew 2/5 recent gamesElevated draw risk (20.6%) - consider AHElite league - reduced thresholdBelow minimum tier (need PREMIUM+, got SKIP/0 rules)
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Moreirensevs
1.13
AroucaGoal Probability
Moreirense
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4
3%
Arouca
0
32%
1
37%
2
21%
3
8%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (11%)0-1 (10%)1-2 (10%)0-2 (8%)1-0 (7%)2-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% | - |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 3% | 97% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Moreirense+4
Gap#12
Arouca
WR 50% 35 pts
WR 23% 26 pts
Moreirense
8.0%
| Mar 15 | Moreireā¦ v FC Porto | 3-0 |
| Mar 07 | Moreireā¦ v Nacional | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Moreireā¦ v Casa Piā¦ | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Moreireā¦ v Sportinā¦ | 0-3 |
| Feb 16 | Moreireā¦ v Rio Aveā¦ | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Moreireā¦ v GIL Vicā¦ | 1-2 |
| Feb 04 | Moreireā¦ v Fafe | 1-1 |
| Jan 30 | Moreireā¦ v Guimaraā¦ | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Moreireā¦ v Santa Cā¦ | 1-0 |
| Jan 17 | Moreireā¦ v Alverca | 2-1 |
Arouca
4.0%
| Mar 14 | Arouca v Benfica | 1-2 |
| Mar 06 | Arouca v Famalicā¦ | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Arouca v FC Porto | 3-1 |
| Feb 21 | Arouca v Nacional | 3-0 |
| Feb 14 | Arouca v Casa Piā¦ | 3-2 |
| Feb 07 | Arouca v Guimaraā¦ | 3-2 |
| Jan 31 | Arouca v Rio Aveā¦ | 0-3 |
| Jan 24 | Arouca v Sportinā¦ | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Arouca v AVS | 0-1 |
| Jan 03 | Arouca v Tondela | 3-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 02, 2025 | Arouca | 0-2 | Moreirense |
| Jan 24, 2025 | Arouca | 1-0 | Moreirense |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Moreirense | 3-1 | Arouca |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Moreirense | 1-0 | Arouca |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
64%
Market
50%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Arouca struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.