Primeira Liga · Mar 21, 2026 18:00
Benfica
PWR 35
Guimaraes
PWR 35
Benfica
PWR 35
4-1
predicted
Guimaraes
PWR 35
57%
23%
20%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Benfica Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
77%
TierPREMIUM
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (6%)3-0 (6%)2-1 (4%)2-0 (4%)3-2 (3%)2-2 (2%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
62%
62%
Under 2.5
38%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 63%
Over 3.5
56%
56%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Benfica
WDWLW
STABLE
Guimaraes
LLDLW
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk25%
Accuracy77%
FORM_MOMENTUMAWAY_LEAKINGFORM_DOMINANTPOINTS_GAP
Standings data available (Tier 2)Home team draws 38% at home = very high riskH2H: 1/4 draws (25%) = HIGH riskConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (25.0%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Benficavs
1.02
GuimaraesGoal Probability
Benfica
0
1%
1
5%
2
11%
3
17%
4
19%
Guimaraes
0
36%
1
37%
2
19%
3
6%
4
2%
CORRECT SCORES
2-0 (8%)2-1 (8%)3-0 (8%)3-1 (8%)4-0 (6%)4-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% | - |
| 4.5 | 37% | 64% | - |
| 5.5 | 21% | 79% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 11% | 89% | UNDER |
League Position
#3
Benfica+6
Gap#9
Guimaraes
WR 62% 62 pts
WR 25% 32 pts
Benfica
14.0%
| Mar 14 | Benfica v Arouca | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Benfica v FC Porto | 2-2 |
| Mar 02 | Benfica v GIL Vic… | 1-2 |
| Feb 25 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Benfica v AVS | 3-0 |
| Feb 17 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 0-1 |
| Feb 13 | Benfica v Santa C… | 1-2 |
| Feb 08 | Benfica v Alverca | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | Benfica v Tondela | 0-0 |
| Jan 28 | Benfica v Real Ma… | 4-2 |
Guimaraes
6.0%
| Mar 14 | Guimara… v Famalic… | 1-2 |
| Mar 08 | Guimara… v Santa C… | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Guimara… v Alverca | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 3-2 |
| Feb 14 | Guimara… v Estrela… | 2-1 |
| Feb 07 | Guimara… v Arouca | 3-2 |
| Jan 30 | Guimara… v Moreire… | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Guimara… v Estoril | 4-2 |
| Jan 18 | Guimara… v FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Jan 10 | Guimara… v SC Braga | 2-1 |
Head-to-Head (4)
| Nov 01, 2025 | Guimaraes | 0-3 | Benfica |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes | 0-3 | Benfica |
| Dec 07, 2024 | Benfica | 1-0 | Guimaraes |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes | 2-2 | Benfica |
Decision Breakdown
S70+DR<22 (82.1%)M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%)M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%)M85+S60 (75.3%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
72%
Market
50%
Key Factors
Benfica in strong form (3W in last 5)
Guimaraes struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.