Premier League · Mar 21, 2026 17:30
Everton
PWR 35
Chelsea
PWR 42
Everton
PWR 35
2-1
predicted
Chelsea
PWR 42
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Everton to win (58% confidence)
Score
2-1
Confidence
58%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-2 (9%)1-1 (8%)2-2 (7%)2-1 (7%)1-3 (6%)0-2 (5%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
69%
69%
Under 2.5
31%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 71%
Over 3.5
52%
Team Comparison
33Attack53
66Defense66
Goals/G
1.11.8
Conc/G
1.11.1
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Everton
LWWLL
STABLE
Chelsea
LLWWL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 3/10 draws (30%) = HIGH riskElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 0%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Evertonvs
2.09
ChelseaGoal Probability
Everton
0
19%
1
32%
2
26%
3
14%
4
6%
Chelsea
0
12%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4
10%
CORRECT SCORES
1-1 (8%)2-1 (8%)1-2 (7%)2-2 (7%)3-1 (5%)3-2 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 98% | 2% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 89% | 11% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 52% | 48% | - |
| 4.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 18% | 82% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 9% | 91% | UNDER |
League Position
#8
Everton-2
Gap#6
Chelsea
WR 33% 43 pts
WR 47% 48 pts
Everton
8.0%
| Mar 14 | Everton v Arsenal | 2-0 |
| Mar 03 | Everton v Burnley | 2-0 |
| Feb 28 | Everton v Newcast… | 2-3 |
| Feb 23 | Everton v Manches… | 0-1 |
| Feb 10 | Everton v Bournem… | 1-2 |
| Feb 07 | Everton v Fulham | 1-2 |
| Jan 31 | Everton v Brighton | 1-1 |
| Jan 26 | Everton v Leeds | 1-1 |
| Jan 18 | Everton v Aston V… | 0-1 |
| Jan 10 | Everton v Sunderl… | 1-1 |
Chelsea
8.0%
| Mar 14 | Chelsea v Newcast… | 0-1 |
| Mar 11 | Chelsea v Paris S… | 5-2 |
| Mar 07 | Chelsea v Wrexham | 2-4 |
| Mar 04 | Chelsea v Aston V… | 1-4 |
| Mar 01 | Chelsea v Arsenal | 2-1 |
| Feb 21 | Chelsea v Burnley | 1-1 |
| Feb 13 | Chelsea v Hull Ci… | 0-4 |
| Feb 10 | Chelsea v Leeds | 2-2 |
| Feb 07 | Chelsea v Wolves | 1-3 |
| Feb 07 | Chelsea v Milton … | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (10)
| Dec 13, 2025 | Chelsea | 2-0 | Everton |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Chelsea | 1-0 | Everton |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Everton | 0-0 | Chelsea |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Everton | 0-0 | Chelsea |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Chelsea | 6-0 | Everton |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Chelsea | 6-0 | Everton |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Everton | 2-0 | Chelsea |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Everton | 2-0 | Chelsea |
| Mar 18, 2023 | Chelsea | 2-2 | Everton |
| Aug 06, 2022 | Everton | 0-1 | Chelsea |
Decision Breakdown
Player
40%
Momentum
45%
Standings
46%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Everton struggling (3L in last 5)
Chelsea struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.